Mark Zuckerberg has given the green light for Meta to develop its own prediction market smartphone app, internally codenamed Arena. According to The New York Times, the app will be independent of Meta's other social media offerings, though sources told the paper that those social sites could direct users to engagement with the app.
Arena will function as a points-based video game without immediate financial transactions
The current concept for Arena is described as experimental but a top priority. Unlike platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, Arena will not involve real money initially. Users will earn points by correctly betting on particular topics, essentially turning prediction into a video game. Sources added that money could be added later, opening up regulatory complexities.
Prediction markets generate billions and spark legal battles
Over the past year, prediction markets have fueled trading volumes reaching tens of billions of dollars on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Other social media sites, such as X which partnered with Polymarket last summer, have sought to capitalize on the industry. However, legal cases have also spiked. A notable case involves a former high-ranking special forces soldier accused of using insider knowledge to profit from the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Former congressman George Santos is also under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades. Several states have sued prediction markets for violating gambling laws, while the current administration, which is pro-prediction market, has sued states for suing these platforms.
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Meta aims to compete with Polymarket and X, but regulation remains uncertain
Meta's move represents an attempt to capitalize on a booming sector and diversify revenue beyond advertising. The no-money approach may allow Meta to bypass initial regulatory hurdles, but any future introduction of real money will require careful navigation of state and federal laws. Keeping the app independent yet linked to existing social networks echoes strategies used for past initiatives like Libra. According to sources, Arena is still in early stages and may undergo significant changes before launch. Meanwhile, Meta continues to invest heavily in cutting-edge technologies, as seen with the recent 21,000 job cuts to fuel AI investments. For a broader analysis of AI investment strategies, see the article on Oracle cuts 21,000 jobs in one year to fuel AI investments. More information on prediction markets can be found on Wikipedia.
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Source: https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/23/mark-zuckerberg-wants-meta-to-launch-its-own-prediction-market
