The El Niño climate phenomenon is wreaking havoc on Pacific fisheries, creating a stark contrast between winners and losers. In Peru, the government has effectively canceled the anchovy fishing season, one of the country's most important exports and a leading source of fish oil and animal feed globally. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishers are reporting some of the most successful tuna fishing months on record. This divergence shows how El Niño can decimate some species while making others easier to catch, causing instability for fishers and price fluctuations for consumers.
Peruvian officials have imposed an indefinite ban on anchovy fishing for the April-to-July season to prevent population collapse. Humberto Speziani, a Peruvian industrial fishing adviser and former director of the International Marine Ingredients Organization, said vessels equipped with sonar are locating anchovies more than 100 meters below the sea surface—twice the depth reachable with standard purse seine nets. This makes commercial catches virtually impossible. Juan Carlos Sueiro, an economist and fisheries director for Oceana Peru, noted: 'People are worried. As climate change is expected to drive more frequent, stronger El Niños, our vulnerability is increasing.'
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Ocean dynamics behind El Niño explain the stark difference between species
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow warm water from South America toward Asia, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to rise from the depths (upwelling). During El Niño, weakening trade winds slow or stop this upwelling, reducing algae at the surface. Species like anchovies that depend on algae must search for food in deeper waters, stressing their populations and reducing catches. At the same time, warm-water species such as skipjack tuna stray closer to the Americas, where temperatures would normally be too cold, making them easier to catch.
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Peru experiences both dynamics. Past El Niños have wiped out the country's anchoveta fishery—the largest single-species fishery in the world—while boosting shrimp, scallops, dolphinfish, and tuna. This year, coastal El Niño conditions have already strained anchovies, leading to the government fishing ban. Even if fishers tried to catch those deep anchovies, they likely could not due to equipment limitations.
California tuna anglers celebrate a 'special treat' as bluefin catches soar
While Peru suffers, Southern California fishers are calling El Niño a 'special treat.' Even before the phenomenon was officially declared in June, recreational and commercial fishers reported 'unprecedented' bluefin tuna yields. One fishing tracker suggests nearly 300,000 more bluefin tuna were caught off the California coast in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. A San Diego sportsfishing company manager said on YouTube in late April: 'We have yellowfin, bluefin, yellowtail, and dorado. What else can you ask for? It's not even May, and fishing's been red-hot.'
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Seafood prices fluctuate as El Niño reshapes supply chains
El Niño's impacts extend to consumer prices. In Peru, jack mackerel and corvina prices have already doubled, prompting families to switch to chicken. Conversely, shrimp populations have boomed in past El Niños, potentially lowering prices. Wild salmon can become so skinny during El Niño that they are called 'snakes,' and their decline in North American coastal waters raises ex-vessel prices that trickle down to retail and restaurants.
Artisanal fishers in South America may not fully offset losses from anchovies. High winds frustrate shipping and heavy rainfall damages onshore infrastructure. Additionally, the Humboldt squid, an important income source for Peruvian artisanal fishers (500,000 tons of catch per year), fares poorly during El Niño due to changes in prey availability. Arnaud Bertrand, a senior scientist at the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, warns: 'If the Humboldt squid collapses, 10,000 boats will try to find another resource, with huge consequences for the ecosystem.'
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The exact impacts depend on when this El Niño peaks. Exceptionally high temperatures in September could signal a damaging event similar to the disastrous 1982 El Niño. Bertrand concludes: 'Each El Niño is different, but with global warming, the worst is the most probable.' For more scientific background, see the Wikipedia article on El Niño.
Source: https://www.wired.com/story/el-nino-wreaking-havoc-on-pacific-fisheries
