According to a new TrendForce report, MacBook price increases will contribute to a 13.6% decline in global laptop shipments in 2026. Despite this, Apple is expected to achieve double-digit year-over-year growth, thanks to stronger-than-expected demand in the first half of the year and the Apple Silicon upgrade cycle.
TrendForce report predicts 13.6% drop in laptop shipments
Market research firm TrendForce has released a report highlighting how rising MacBook prices are negatively impacting the entire notebook market. The price hikes, driven by memory shortages and rising component costs, have led to downward revisions in global shipment forecasts. According to the report, total laptop shipments in 2026 will fall 13.6% compared to the previous year. However, Apple may outperform the broader market: the company is expected to ship 23.1 million notebooks, despite softening demand in the second half of the year.
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Apple outperforms the market thanks to Apple Silicon
The report notes that demand in the first half of 2026 was stronger than expected, fueled by Apple Silicon processor upgrades and the robust macOS ecosystem. This allowed Apple to pull forward some demand that would normally materialize in the second half. Earlier shipments have reduced remaining demand for later months, and rising retail prices are starting to dampen consumer enthusiasm. TrendForce notes that several notebook brands have already experienced softer demand, particularly in the entry-level and mainstream segments, where price sensitivity is higher.
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Component costs and weak demand hurt laptop market
Rising component costs, especially for memory and advanced semiconductors, have been gradually passed on to retail prices. AI server demand continues to strain production resources, keeping costs elevated. This combination of rising costs and consumer resistance to price increases is leading to a broad decline in shipments. TrendForce expects these pressures to persist throughout the year, contributing to the 13.6% drop.
Implications for consumers and the industry
For consumers, higher MacBook prices might push some price-sensitive buyers toward premium Windows laptops. However, the substitution effect is limited, as Windows notebook prices are also rising. Overall demand remains weak, and the laptop market is facing a contraction phase. For those seeking alternatives, it is important to carefully evaluate value for money. Apple, for its part, continues to leverage its ecosystem and chip performance. In a difficult market, the Cupertino company may still close the year with double-digit growth, as indicated by the report. For more Apple news, read the article about the Apple Hide My Email bug. For further details on MacBooks, see the Wikipedia page.
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