The debate over whether AI is replacing jobs rages on. In May 2026, tech layoffs hit their highest single-month total in years, with AI cited as the primary reason, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. However, new data from venture firm SignalFire, tracking millions of employees across over 80 million companies, tells a different story.
Engineering hiring declines less than overall
SignalFire's analysis shows that while total hiring at large tech companies dropped 25% compared to 2019, engineering roles saw a much smaller decline of just 11%. Moreover, engineers made up 55% of all new hires in 2025 at the 12 "Tech Majors" (Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe), a significant jump from 46% in 2019. Early-stage startups also hired 7% more engineers in 2025 than in 2019.
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AI is not yet replacing workers, data suggests
Asher Bantock, SignalFire's head of research, argues that if AI were truly substituting for engineers, engineering hiring would be the first to fall. Instead, engineering headcount is growing faster than other functions. Anthropic's economist Peter McCrory stated he has not seen significant AI-driven effects on employment. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rejected the idea that AI will eliminate engineering jobs, saying his engineers are busier than ever thanks to AI agents. This echoes the Jevons paradox: greater efficiency increases demand for a resource because work expands.
Connections to Stanford's pharmaceutical simulations
AI application in other fields, like drug discovery, shows a similar trend. A recent Stanford study simulated the entire drug cycle with 10,000 AI agents, demonstrating that AI augments researchers rather than replacing them. Similarly, tools like Mistral OCR 4 help European enterprises manage complex documents, creating new demand for engineering skills to integrate them.
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According to the original source from TechCrunch, SignalFire's data indicates that engineers are the most resilient profession in 2025. AI is not killing engineering jobs; it is transforming them, pushing professionals to focus on higher-value tasks. The next challenge will be managing this transition with targeted investments in training and infrastructure.
