California has set up a system that pays cattle farmers to convert methane from manure into natural gas, part of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The program has become wildly popular due to lucrative subsidies. However, a growing body of research suggests it may be counterproductive for long-term climate goals.
LCFS credits reward swapping methane for carbon dioxide
Under the program, the transportation fuel industry must lower its carbon dioxide levels or purchase credits from others, including dairy farmers. By installing anaerobic digesters, farmers capture biogas from manure lagoons, convert it into natural gas, and inject it into pipelines. Oil companies can then buy LCFS credits to meet regulatory requirements without reducing their own emissions. Burning biogas releases CO2, but the idea is to avoid methane release, a far more potent greenhouse gas initially. According to UC Berkeley economist Aaron Smith, one average biogas-powered vehicle produces enough credits to cover deficits from 26 gasoline-powered vehicles.
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A comparison of greenhouse gases with different lifetimes
The core issue lies in the different atmospheric behavior. California assumes methane is about 25 times more potent than CO2 over 100 years. But methane breaks down within a couple of decades, while CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Thus, reducing methane today prevents intense short-term warming, but the added CO2 from burning biogas persists almost permanently. Researchers warn that trading a short-lived gas for a long-lived one can increase overall long-term warming, making it harder to keep temperatures within safe limits.
Criticism from economists and program extension proposals
Despite these concerns, California regulators decided in 2024 to extend parts of the program beyond 2050. A recent proposal by the state's Air Resources Board could send millions more dollars to dairy farmers while easing restrictions on major emitters. This reflects broader trends: instead of forcing industries to cut pollution directly, convoluted offset systems often overstate actual emission reductions. As noted in a related article on AI for operational excellence is not theory, tackling problems at their root is essential. It is time to move from rewarding sectors for not polluting to simply requiring them to stop unloading environmental burdens onto society. For more on the carbon credit mechanism, see the Wikipedia page on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
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Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/07/02/1139981/why-californias-carbon-manure-math-doesnt-add-up
