In the middle of a scorching summer, talking about heating seems out of place, yet the heat pump market in the United States shows no signs of slowing down. According to a new report, sales have doubled over the past fifteen years and in the first quarter of 2026 they surpassed gas furnaces by 32%. This is striking because the key federal tax credit for heat pump installations expired on December 31, 2025.
How heat pumps achieve high efficiency
Heat pumps use electricity to move heat from one place to another through a refrigerant that expands and compresses in a continuous cycle. This mechanism makes them extremely efficient: once installed, operating costs are significantly lower than gas or oil furnaces. Moreover, many models can reverse the cycle to cool buildings, offering a dual benefit.
Growth numbers despite incentive expiration
Data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), which represents about 90% of the U.S. market, shows that heat pump shipments remained flat from December to January and gradually increased in the following months. The seasonal spring uptick in 2026 was even stronger than in previous years. Energy economist Lucas Davis from UC Berkeley notes that the loss of the tax credit does not appear to have dampened demand. "The U.S. market for heat pumps is strong enough that it does not depend on tax credits," Davis writes in his analysis.
Sponsored Protocol
Comparison with the electric vehicle market
The behavior of the heat pump market differs from that of electric vehicles. Tax credits of up to $7,500 for new EVs ended on September 30, 2025, causing a sales spike followed by a sharp drop. For heat pumps, demand remained robust. In the last four years, heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces in the United States, and the trend continues into 2026.
Sponsored Protocol
Global adoption and future outlook
The growth is not limited to the U.S. Countries like China and Germany have seen strong uptake. According to MIT Technology Review, which listed heat pumps among breakthrough technologies in 2024, "we have entered the era of the heat pump." Despite initial barriers such as higher purchase and installation costs compared to gas furnaces, government incentives and growing climate awareness are driving the market. Even tech companies like OpenAI are exploring new frontiers, but in the energy sector the transition is already underway. For a deeper look at cybersecurity challenges in the energy sector, read our article on Business Wi-Fi Security. For more details on heat pumps, check the Wikipedia page.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/07/16/1140505/heat-pump-sales-us
