According to a new report from Counterpoint Research published this week, the global foldable smartphone market will grow 21% year-over-year in 2026, driven by Apple's entry with its anticipated iPhone Ultra. The research firm estimates that Apple will capture a 25% share, placing it second behind Samsung.
Samsung retains lead but loses ground
Samsung will remain the top player in the foldable segment, but its share will drop from 40% in 2025 to 32%. The launch of the Galaxy Z Fold 8, with its wider, passport-like design, represents an attempt to refresh the lineup. However, competition is intensifying. Apple, with its iPhone Ultra, is expected to be the main challenger, edging out Huawei, which will fall from 30% to 24%. Motorola and HONOR will see declines to 8% and 3% respectively, while other brands will account for the remaining 8%.
Book-type foldable design as key for AI
Counterpoint highlights that the wider book-type foldable form factor will become increasingly relevant as AI features move beyond chat-based interactions into everyday workflows. Tasks such as summarizing documents, editing content, managing schedules, or moving information between apps all benefit from a larger screen and a flexible layout. Samsung, with its wider Fold 8, aims to provide a better canvas to demonstrate how foldables can support AI-assisted productivity in a practical way. Apple, with its similar form factor, may follow the same path.
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Galaxy Z Fold 8 vs iPhone Ultra comparison
The Galaxy Z Fold 8, announced just days ago, adopts a wider and shorter design, very similar to what is rumored for the iPhone Ultra. Samsung has denied any direct correlation with Apple rumors. Drew Blackard, Samsung's mobile product chief, told Joanna Stern that the new shape was designed to offer a wider screen for videos, not to mimic Cupertino's plans. This detail is interesting because it shows how both manufacturers are converging on similar solutions, driven by user needs and content evolution.
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According to estimates, Apple's entry could intensify competition in the premium book-type foldable segment, leading to faster innovation and greater adoption. However, concerns remain about battery life on the new Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Z Flip 8 models, which, according to some analyses, have reduced usable capacity compared to predecessors—a factor that could influence consumer choices. Check our dedicated article on the battery downgrade in Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Z Flip 8.
The full Counterpoint Research report is available at the external link below. For more information on the foldable market, you can consult Wikipedia's page on foldable smartphones.
