According to a new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean could shatter all historical records. Forecast models indicate that this year's El Niño, characterized by exceptionally warm waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, is building unprecedented strength. Hausfather notes that simulations based on 14 climate models updated through July converge on a temperature anomaly of 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal in the Niño 3.4 region, surpassing the previous record from 2015-2016 by about 0.8 degrees Celsius.
Climate model analysis reveals off-scale intensity
Researchers measure El Niño strength by monitoring temperatures in the Pacific region known as Niño 3.4, covering the central and eastern ocean. The new analysis uses 667 simulations and compares them with historical data from the most intense El Niño events since 1877. The result is striking: the projected temperature peak is so high that the margin over the fifth strongest El Niño in the last 150 years is only 0.5 degrees, while the new record could beat the previous one by 0.8 degrees. "The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed," writes Hausfather.
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The unprecedented intensity of the 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of global consequences. The record ocean heat, combined with warming from carbon emissions, could push global temperatures to new highs. However, the full effects will only be seen next year, when the extra heat released by El Niño propagates through the climate system. Projections indicate that global temperatures in 2027 could reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, exceeding the critical 1.5-degree threshold considered a relatively safe level of warming.
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Early extreme weather and economic fallout
We won't have to wait until 2027 to feel the impacts. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds of 2026 setting an annual heat record have risen from 19% in April to 35% in July. Extreme weather events linked to El Niño are already underway: in the eastern Pacific, fish catches have dropped, leading the Peruvian government to ban anchovy fishing. Moreover, El Niño is intensifying faster than the super El Niño of 1997-1998, and this despite the year starting with La Niña, the cooler counterpart.
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The economic repercussions could be enormous. A study by Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College, estimated that damages from the 1997-1998 El Niño reduced global economic growth by about $5.7 trillion in the following years. If current projections hold, the unfolding episode could cause cumulative losses of around $10 trillion by 2032. The lack of historical analogues makes forecast accuracy uncertain, but Hausfather notes that models are converging around the 3.6 degree average, giving forecasters confidence.
For more on digital health and data trust, read the article on Samsung's AI health push. Also, learn more about El Niño on Wikipedia's El Niño page.
Source: https://www.wired.com/story/2026-el-nino-the-strongest-in-150-years
